How to work with 'unknown futures' to inspire disruptive innovations
As rational creatures of habit, we tend to focus on probable futures - placing stock in measuring, analysing, and forecasting existing change patterns. But what if the most interesting ideas are waiting to be discovered amidst preposterous future scenarios that seem far-fetched, impossible or even ridiculous?
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Organisations often build strategies based on well-known probable changes, whereas future possibilities that seem like daydreams or simply ridiculous are left aside. As rational creatures of habit, we tend to adhere to what appears to be there already: placing stock in measuring, analysing, and forecasting preferable patterns. And whenever the forecast does not match the reality, we just accept it, as “no one can foretell”. What if, in addition to studying existing change paths, we could also identify and define new ones?
6 DIFFERENT WAYS TO APPROACH FUTURE RESEARCH
When planning for the future, many organisations rely on versions of projected futures (which are the expected, “business as usual” future possibilities) by reflecting on what is perceived as the most probable.
In addition to probable futures (“likely to happen” based on well-known trends), some try to understand plausible futures (“could happen” based on current knowledge) and eventually possible futures (“might happen”, but we don’t have the knowledge yet).
In addition, two more controversial types have been defined by futurist Joseph Voros: The preposterous futures are those that are impossible or even ridiculous, the futures that would “never happen”, and potential futures cover everything beyond today and into the future.
Living in a world where change can happen quickly and tomorrow can easily reveal itself as a complete surprise, working only with certain or highly probable changes is no longer sufficient to avoid risks. Moreover, revolutionary change is seldom possible without thinking beyond the most obvious future scenario. Therefore, we need to learn how to work with the “unknown”. We can approach the “unknown” by identifying the methods that help us concretise the preposterous and potential futures.
GO BEYOND THE ‘NORMAL’ OR ‘REALISTIC’ FUTURES
When we had a chance to meet and chat with the foresight pioneer Andy Hines in the annual Futures Conference, we asked him how to present preposterous futures in a project with a large corporation, where the focus was limited to forecasting. His answer was simple: “You could present them the options of extreme future events, and they grab the ones they see as interesting... or they don’t”.
Andy Hines, Anna Grabtchak, Marianna Mäki-Teeri at the Planetary Futures of Health and Wellbeing conference
I would not call that a method as of yet, but in its simplicity lies a catch. Companies that realise that the operating environment is changing fast have a clear need for foresight: they are motivated to learn new tricks and are open to new methods. And those are the companies that are ready to work with the “unknown”.
To grasp the unknown, you must venture beyond your comfort zone and embrace possibilities that may seem unconventional or improbable. If future possibilities that seem unlikely or far-fetched don’t spark your curiosity or raise what-if questions in your mind, you might not be ready for this exercise (yet).
However, if these ideas resonate with you, you can investigate wild cards - those low probability, high impact changes that could reshape the future. Prioritise those that are the most interesting from your organisation’s perspective. Defining what qualifies as "interesting" varies from person to person; typically, those involved in strategy, innovation management, consumer trends, or market forecasts have already established their criteria. Often, this is something that forms a vital component of the organisation’s future success and is closely related to the strategic assumptions on which the entire business existence depends.
Another reason why engaging with the unknown is crucial is because our emotions often convey insights beyond raw data; they uncover insecurities or topics we tend to avoid. If a wild card change elicits strong emotions, you might just be on the right track to discovering the potential of preposterous futures.
Another piece of advice we got at the conference was “Make them laugh” by futurist Maya Van Leemput. “The more ridiculous event you can find, the better. Just make sure you land them well”, she continued. By landing, she refers to a concrete end result: For example, you can start with how Jules Verne’s sci-fi story “Robur the Conqueror” eventually led to the development of the modern helicopter.
By exploring such seemingly absurd yet successful ideas, we can better understand and engage with concepts that are difficult to grasp. Byletting go of the expectation of having to be right and encouraging creativity, we can transform ridiculous ideas into tools for innovation. From the perspective of foresight, the true value lies in how these ideas might change the world around you.
USE WILD CARDS FOR STRATEGY ANALYSIS AND STRESS-TESTING
One practical way to better understand the unfamiliar and unknown futures is to broaden your perspective with the help of wild cards. Wild cards are often characterised as sudden, rare, surprising, disruptive discontinuities and shocks that could change the course of the future. These “known unknowns” may present early information about a potential emerging risk or a game-changing opportunity.
Here are our top 3 tips based on our experience working with public and private organisations of different sizes from different industries:
Select the wild cards that make you laugh, or the ones that irritate you the most.
Picture your organisation in a world where this wild card becomes a reality:
Who are your main customers in this new world?
What are your main responsibilities?
Who are your competitors?
Which values are perceived as important in society?
Evaluate your strategy under each new world outlined in the previous step:
Is your current strategy still robust? Or is it completely redundant?
How would you need to reshape your strategy to remain competitive?
What actions could you take today to future-proof your existing strategy?
Are the effects of the wild card first experienced internally or externally (to the organisation)?
Futures Platform’s foresight database includes a rich collection of wild cards that can enhance your foresight work. Book a free demo today and discover 100+ wild cards that you can use to do the exercise above.
References
Joseph Voros, 2017. “The Futures Cone, use and history.” The Voroscope. https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/
These two disciplines play distinct yet complementary roles in strategic decision-making, both essential for success in today's volatile environment.