How to Build Scenarios Efficiently with a Scenario Planning Process
Scenario planning is a versatile foresight tool that boosts agility and creates space for innovation. With a scenario planning process, teams can easily make scenario planning an integral part of their strategy work.
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Future operational environments are increasingly shaped by forces of unprecedented nature, such as new technologies and climate change. When there are no historical analogies to look back to, scenario planning can help us better understand and plan for a multitude of possible futures. In addition to enhancing efficiency, an established scenario planning process will empower organisations to proactively shape the future through strategic decision-making.
WHAT IS SCENARIO PLANNING?
As a methodology, scenarios take the uncertainty of the future as the starting point. With a fine balance between objective knowledge and intuitive logic, they form well-founded but still imaginative descriptions of possible futures. Having its roots in cinema, scenario building also uses compelling narratives that make foresight work accessible and engaging for all participants.
WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESSES?
In scenario planning, the work process itself is as important as the end result, which is why it is crucial for organisations to have a well-defined scenario planning process in place. Moreover, building scenarios as a one-off exercise will hardly bring any benefits in the long term.
Since the main benefit of scenario planning is to create a dynamic understanding of potential futures and link them to the decisions we make today, scenario planning needs to be a continuous, institutionalised practice – ideally conducted at least once a year.
Following a structured scenario planning process will guide participants to think about the potential evolvement of trends in a methodological way. It will help keep the process focused yet still open-ended enough, nurturing creative thinking and innovative ideas. It will also ensure that the internal logic of scenario descriptions is consistent and linked to concrete business opportunities and threats.
Having structured processes in place will ensure that the results are not put on the shelf once the scenario work is completed. With its key objectives and clear performance indicators, a systematic approach to scenario planning sets clear guidelines for organisations to test, implement and review the results of scenario work in a structured and measurable way.
HOW TO INTRODUCE A SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS IN YOUR ORGANISATION
You can easily make scenario-planning an integral part of your strategy work using established scenario-planning frameworks.
One frequently used method in scenario planning is the Axes of Uncertainty, which results in four scenarios describing alternative futures in a 2x2 scenario planning matrix.
Start creating your scenarios with your team with these five simple steps:
1. Define the research question
The correct framing of the issue at hand is vital to the rest of the scenario-making process. At this stage, define the main themes, topics, or key ‘what if’ questions you want to explore. To further narrow down your scope, also determine the year when your scenarios will be taking place, e.g.“Customer 2030”.
2. Scan the horizon for trends and signals of change
Scan for phenomena that are relevant to your research question. In addition to megatrends, search also for wild cards, weak signals of change and weakening trends to ensure diversity in your environmental description. You can utilise Futures Platform’s foresight database with a 15-day free trial to speed up your research.
3. Vote and rate findings for prioritisation
Ask a selected team involving your organisation and stakeholders to vote for the signals you gathered at the previous stage. Rate the content according to specified criteria (for example, the level of uncertainty and threat) to prioritise key uncertainties regarding the future of your research topic.
4. Build the scenario descriptions
Select the two key uncertainties central to the question you’re investigating. Use them to create a simple 2x2 matrix. Give each of your scenarios a name and keep the narratives rich with multiple perspectives and actionable insights.
5. Implement results and measure their future development
Once the scenario-descriptions are finalised, you should then implement the results in your organisation’s functions and set up metrics for measuring their future development. This can include, for example, action plans to seize the identified opportunities or future-proofing operations against the threats you may be facing.
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CASE VISIT FINLAND: TRAVELER 2030 SCENARIOS WITH FUTURES PLATFORM
Image credit: Visit Finland
Visit Finland began its tourism foresight work in the spring of 2020 by gathering views on trends and signals of change affecting the tourism landscape. Scenario building was executed by involving Visit Finland’s network of experts.
Utilising Futures Platform’s digital foresight solution and scenario-building frameworks designed by our experts, participants first prioritised phenomena based on their estimated significance and potential future impact. The prioritisation served as the foundation for the scenario work.
In the scenario-building phase, the participants formed four potential tourism landscapes and future tourist personas based on driving forces and uncertainties. Scenarios were fleshed out by using the uncertainty matrix. With these scenarios, they were able to explore each tourist persona, describe the possible customer profiles, and discover the business opportunities as well as identify risks.
As a result of the scenario planning, Visit Finland is now well-equipped to take advantage of future changes and seize innovative opportunities to serve future travellers’ needs.
Easily create your own scenarios with Futures Platform’s scenario planning workflow. Contact us to learn more about how you can make scenario-work efficient, engaging and impactful using this easy-to-follow workflow.
These two disciplines play distinct yet complementary roles in strategic decision-making, both essential for success in today's volatile environment.