Why Should We Do Foresight?
Creating the Future We Want Cannot Be Based on Rear View Methods
As individuals or members of organisations, we will most likely not reach the future we desire, unless, when making plans and strategic choices, we are well aware of the possible, plausible and probable future options. In order to be future proof with our decisions, we need a combination of systematic foresight, and proactive visioning plus hands on making of the future we want. As famous sci-fi writer Arthur C. Clark put it “Unless we invent a better future, we won´t have one of any kind”.
The term foresight was used for the first time in a BBC broadcast in 1932 by visionary author H.G. Wells, who called for the establishment of “Departments and Professors of Foresight”. Later it evolved to refer to a systematic process of visioning alternative futures through a combination of hindsight, insight and prospection. That kind of (fore)sight attempts to say something about future probabilities and options for actions. (Hind)sight is about systematically understanding the past, (In)sight is about systematically understanding the true nature of the present in its all complexity, and Prospection is about systematically understanding the future and the plausible options that it carries.
One very common type of foresight is desk work foresight, where one or a few dedicated researchers study an issue with methods that are relevant for enhancing their understanding of the future of a particular issue. Another type of foresight is participatory foresight, in which a facilitator leads a group of people to study an issue with a view to understand of how a particular issue will evolve. The third type of foresight is strategic foresight, where one researcher or a group studies strategic issues with methods that are relevant for enhancing an organisation´s abilities to be up-to-date and proactive with regards to an issue. Quite often the forms of foresight get merged, meaning that e.g. participatory foresight may also be strategic by its nature, and desk work foresight can be combined to any other forms of foresight.
Foresight professionals or so-called futurists tend to say, that we cannot know exactly what will happen, as the future isn´t there yet to be seen. Yet if, for any issue of interest, we study its current foundations, trends, weak signals and drivers well enough, we can say quite much about the possible and plausible futures options of how the issue may develop in the future. We may even be able to narrow down the plausible options into a few probable futures options, that can be further adjusted based on the changes and surprises that we face on the way.
The more one is working with a topic that involves long-range strategic decisions, the less the understanding of possible future developments can be based on plain historical time series, past experience and other rear mirror approaches. Knowledge of the past doesn’t help one see discontinuities, disruptions and emerging issues before they come, as such things are not direct outcomes of the past. They are un-calculable outcomes of dynamical turbulence in a complex environment. They are genuinely novel and quite rare, but very important parts of how the future unfolds. For that reason the understanding of the future should be a combination of systematic foresight, (meaning e.g. data analysis, cross-impact analysis, scenario work, environmental scanning, trends and potential risks analysis); as well as imaginary proactive visioning and what-if prospections plus hands on making of the future we want.
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