Will the War in Ukraine Ignite a New Societal Revolution?
Futures Platform’s Lead Futurist Dr Tuomo Kuosa analyses the war in Ukraine in relation to the periodic shifts in the zeitgeist, and discusses whether we may be on the cusp of major societal disruption.
About the Author
Dr Tuomo Kuosa works as a Director of Futures Research at Futures Platform. He holds a PhD from Turku School of Economics, and is an Associate Professor of Strategic Foresight in the Finnish National Defence University.
FUTURE PROOF – BLOG BY FUTURES PLATFORM
In our Challenging the Obvious article series, Futures Platform’s futurists look at trends from different angles, raise what-if questions and inspire new thinking by shedding light on the alternative future possibilities that lie beyond the obvious.
ZEITGEIST SHIFTS AND MAJOR SOCIETAL CHANGE
Are we now living through the times of greatest change in the history of humankind? Yes, and no. Change is indeed continuous, but not constant.
Large-scale societal change usually takes place in repeating cycles of societal epochs, each following a similar pattern with three specific phases: (i) Big Revolution, (ii) Reassembling and (iii) increasing Social Pressure. While living through any of these three phases feels unique, the dynamics of each are remarkably different from one another.
Zeitgeist –the spirit of the age– is both the engine and the meter of social demand for change. Each societal epoch has its own zeitgeist, which gradually shifts through the three distinct phases of the cycle. Once social pressure grows too high, or in other words, the zeitgeist changes, we can expect some sort of a new revolution to come.
Revolutions can be characterised as periods of major transformation where old structures collapse. This phase is relatively short, and often violent. Revolutions start a new epoch, and these periods of destruction are usually followed by a longer phase of gradual reassembling, where the broken parts self-organise into a new order. Novel combinations, linkages, structures, organisations and processes replace the old systems that had since become obsolete.
Eventually, as the world continuously changes, pressure starts to build up again. The new structures are no longer optimally organised, and the shifts in zeitgeist demand a new world order, leading to another revolution.
Historically, such big revolutions are ignited roughly every 25-50 years. Examples are many, including The French Revolution and American Revolutionary War, the First and Second World Wars, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Each of these was preceded by an era of increasing social pressure. The pressure was also clearly visible in the associated zeitgeist.
THE EPOCH THAT WE LIVE IN: ARE WE ON THE EDGE OF A NEW REVOLUTION?
The latest big revolution was the Fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union from 1989 to 1991. Behind it was a social pressure that had grown enormous over time. The contemporary zeitgeist said no more communism and no more Iron Curtain.
Once the revolution phase was over, then began the reassembly of the political, economic, and military order, particularly in Europe. This reassembling phase continued throughout the 1990s, until the social order became more mature by the early 2000s. This is why the beginning of the 21st century has been characterised as one of the happiest and the most optimistic times. Despite the burst of the dot-com bubble, 9/11 and its subsequent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the overall zeitgeist in the developed world was that liberal democracy has now permanently prevailed and will spread across the globe.
But behind the prevailing sense of optimism, the pressure has been building up through the years. The Russian expansionist program, which can be seen as a long tail of the previous revolution, namely the collapse of the Soviet Union, has been one of the biggest drivers of instability that is pushing toward a new revolution. But it isn’t the only reason for what we see coming.
The uncontrolled concentration of wealth in the hands of a few, increasing inflation, surging national debts, the advent of artificial intelligence and automation, societal value shifts, and a whole new virtual layer being built on top of the physical world all create extra pressure on the social system; making old structures obsolete.
Hence, we may now be on the edge of a new revolution, ignited by the Russian attack on Ukraine. It can play out as a large, sudden avalanche of major transformation in Europe, or as a chain reaction of smaller avalanches taking place around the world over a longer time span. Let’s hope it is the latter.
This article is based on a larger publication titled Epoch Change: The Revolution Ahead of Us by Dr Tuomo Kuosa. Get your free copy below to read the full analysis.
As populations begin to demand businesses and governments to define their success in new metrics other than financial growth and economic prosperity, new routes for future economic systems are starting to take shape.