Beyond the Here and Now: Strategic Foresight in Cyber Security
Embrace a long-term perspective to strengthen your cyber security strategy against ever-evolving cyber threats.
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Today’s cyber security environment often resembles the frenzied pace of an emergency room. Attack methods constantly evolve, yet responses to cyber threats remain largely reactive, occurring only after the damage has been done. As the cyber security landscape intertwines more deeply with the broader economic and political contexts, organisations must adopt a long-term perspective to anticipate and proactively mitigate risks.
UNDERSTANDING CYBER SECURITY THREATS: IT’S MORE THAN JUST TECH
The modern landscape of cyber security extends far beyond the realm of new technologies and technical vulnerabilities. Cyber threats today often emanate from the complex interactions between nation-states, international organisations, and non-state actors. Therefore, understanding the financial or political motivations of cyber threat actors is as vital as understanding the latest hacking tools.
Some examples of cyber threats include:
State-sponsored disinformation campaigns and influence operations: Governments and state-sponsored entities may employ misinformation and propaganda to manipulate public opinion, disrupt democratic processes, or advance their geopolitical agendas.
Economic competition: Competing companies and nations may engage in cyber espionage and intellectual property theft to gain a competitive advantage.
Geopolitical tensions: Disputes and conflicts among nations can escalate in the cyber realm, leading to cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, government and military systems, or diplomatic communications.
Critical infrastructure vulnerabilities: Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, including power grids, water supplies, and transportation systems, pose a significant risk to public safety and national security.
Emerging technologies and the Internet of Things (IoT): The proliferation of IoT devices and emerging technologies like 5G and artificial intelligence introduces new attack surfaces and potential vulnerabilities.
These examples underscore the importance of an interdisciplinary approach to effectively confront the ever-evolving, multifaceted cyber security threats. It is imperative to engage professionals from diverse domains in the process, rather than solely relying on cyber security experts.
ANTICIPATE TOMORROW’S RISKS WITH A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE
A long-term approach to cyber security will shift the focus beyond immediate threats to encompass broader social, economic and political trends and potential wild cards that may inevitably have technical implications.
Being collaborative and multidisciplinary, strategic foresight is a powerful tool for groups from diverse professional backgrounds to join forces and explore the future of cyber security from multiple angles.
By leveraging foresight methodologies, organisations can have a structured process of dialogue in place to analyse the threat potential of emerging technologies and proactively prepare for the potential challenges ahead. Ultimately, this will not only bolster cyber security efforts but also foster a resilient organisational culture in the face of evolving cyber threats.
The Security & Safety foresight radar on Futures Platform, which includes change signals across various domains that may impact the security field in the next 20 years.
HOW TO USE FORESIGHT IN CYBER SECURITY RISK MANAGEMENT
Threat Intelligence: Start with horizon scanning to identify the emerging trends, change signals and threats that should be considered in your cyber security strategy.
Scenario Planning: Build a set of different scenarios to explore how the trends you’ve identified in the previous stage may unfold and impact your organisation.
Collaborative Workshops: Organise workshops with colleagues and stakeholders to share the scenarios you’ve built and discuss their implications from multiple angles.
Strategize: Once threats have been identified and ranked in priority, take the necessary strategic steps to address them.
Repeat: Repeat this process regularly to maintain an up-to-date view of the evolving cyber security landscape.
Embracing strategic foresight in cybersecurity is not just a tactical advantage; it's a strategic imperative in our interconnected digital world.
Stay ahead with Futures Platform’s digital foresight solution.
References
ENISA (2023). Identifying Emerging Cyber Security Threats and Challenges For 2030. European Union Agency for Cybersecurity
Fischer, B., Meissner, D., Nyuur, R., Sarpong, D. (2022). Guest Editorial: Cyber-Attacks, Strategic Cyber-Foresight, and Security. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 69(6), pp. 3660-3663.
Onwubiko, C. & Ouazzane, K. (2021). Multidimensional Cybersecurity Framework for Strategic Foresight. Intl. Journal on Cyber Situational Awareness, 6(1), pp. 46-77.
Raban, Y., & Hauptman, A. (2018). Foresight of cyber security threat drivers and affecting technologies. foresight, 20(4), 353-363.
Foresight is a vital practice for all organisations today, but it's not always easy. Foresight practitioners encounter common challenges that can obscure their view of what lies ahead.