The future of global security hinges on societal resilience
Defence debates tend to focus on firepower. But the most destabilising risks may come from something far harder to quantify: the fraying of social trust, the manipulation of truth, and the erosion of the middle class.
FUTURE PROOF – BLOG BY FUTURES PLATFORM
Traditional security analysis has long prioritised weapons systems, military budgets, and great power rivalries. Yet some of the most serious vulnerabilities may be emerging quietly in society itself. Declining social trust, rising unemployment among youth, worsening mental health, and democratic backsliding are not new phenomena, but digital technologies have accelerated and amplified their effects in ways that traditional defence frameworks are ill-prepared to manage.
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Market signals already show the strain. Global youth unemployment remains above 13%, in some regions topping 30%. More than 70% of the world’s population now lives in countries experiencing some form of democratic backsliding. Meanwhile, demand for mental health apps is soaring, with the global market projected to reach $25.6 billion by 2033. Taken together, these indicators suggest that the next decade of defence planning cannot be separated from societal disruptions.
The same fault lines, amplified by technology
Of course, none of these pressures are entirely new. Disinformation was a Cold War staple. Industrial mechanisation gutted livelihoods long before AI. Trust in institutions has risen and fallen across eras. What has changed is the way digital platforms accelerate, amplify, and obscure these forces; creating vulnerabilities that outpace existing safeguards.
A rumour that once spread slowly by leaflet or word of mouth can now reach millions in hours. Industrialisation displaced workers over decades; automation can now restructure entire sectors in a single business cycle. What once unfolded gradually enough for societies to adapt now happens in bursts that overwhelm resilience.
This shift in velocity, intensity, and transparency explains why older problems take on new strategic weight now. Democracies built guardrails for the disruptions of the 20th century. The question is not whether societies have faced these challenges before, but whether they can withstand them at digital speed.
Below, we examine three future phenomena that illustrate how societal and ethical disruptions could redefine security in the coming decade.
FUTURE PHENOMENON 1
Social Trust
Weakening Trend
Social trust underpins everything from banking and digital transactions to compliance with law and civic cooperation. It correlates with stronger democracies, healthier economies, and lower crime rates. And when trust breaks down, so does the infrastructure built on it.
Across much of the West, trust is declining. Inequality, stagnant wages, political polarisation, and the algorithmic echo chambers have deepened divides. Polarisation spreads faster in digital environments designed to reward outrage. Scandals circulate endlessly online, long after institutions have attempted reform. And unlike past periods of low trust, today’s algorithmic amplification ensures fractures are constantly deepened rather than allowed to heal.
This decline has direct security implications. Low-trust societies are more vulnerable to disinformation campaigns, radicalisation, and insider threats. Military institutions may struggle with recruitment, morale, and legitimacy if cynicism hardens. Internationally, declining trust complicates alliance-building and cooperation on pressing issues such as climate, trade, and collective defence.
For adversaries, exploiting these divisions is cheaper and more effective than fighting directly. If trust continues to deteriorate, the greatest threat to democracies may come not from external attacks but from internal paralysis.
FUTURE PHENOMENON 2
AI-Driven Mass Misinformation & Propaganda
Strengthening Trend
Propaganda is as old as politics. In the 20th century, both authoritarian states and democracies used it to shape public opinion; though campaigns then required more time, resources, and left clearer fingerprints than today’s digital equivalents.
Generative AI removes those barriers. With minimal expertise, actors can now flood the internet with synthetic news sites, deepfake videos, and personalised falsehoods. NewsGuard reported more than 1,200 AI-generated websites posing as legitimate outlets as of September 2025.
The result is not only more misinformation but a deeper collapse of confidence—the “liar’s dividend,” where even truth is doubted. During elections or crises, this can paralyse decision-making.
In the long run, this collapse of shared reality may prove more strategically dangerous than any weapons system. Without rapid investments in authentication tools, counter-disinformation strategies, and public resilience, the information environment risks descending into pervasive distrust, weakening societies at precisely the moments when consensus is most critical.
FUTURE PHENOMENON 3
Future without Work & the Erosion of the Middle Class
Wild Card
Economic disruption has always threatened stability. Mechanisation displaced artisans in the 19th century. Globalisation shifted jobs abroad in the late 20th. Each wave was painful but gradual enough for institutions to adapt.
AI and automation compress that timeline. Jobs in manufacturing, administration, and even white-collar sectors like accounting and coding are at risk of rapid restructuring. The middle class, traditionally the backbone of social and political stability, is at particular risk.
This has cascading effects: a weaker tax base, lower social mobility, and a stronger pull toward populism. At its extreme, production could detach from human labour altogether, creating economies where wealth is generated but citizens feel excluded from prosperity. Governments may be forced to adopt redistributive measures such as new tax regimes or universal basic income to maintain legitimacy. Without them, unrest and political instability are likely to grow.
Why all this matters more now
What ties these disruptions together is not novelty but acceleration. Social trust has cracked before, propaganda has misled before, and jobs have vanished before. What is new is the speed at which these processes unfold in a digital and AI-saturated environment, and the opacity that makes them harder to trace or contain.
For defence planners, this means broadening the definition of security. Protecting citizens against disinformation, mitigating economic displacement, and rebuilding institutional trust may prove harder than developing the next generation of drones. But failure to address these pressures will leave even the best-equipped militaries standing on brittle ground.
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